2 - Study Hall Library

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Here is where you do some of your required homework. Learn posting etiquette and an introduction to PVSRA in the Orientation Room. Learn more of PVSRA in the Study Hall. Learn using the tools via Indicator User Notes in PVSRA Downloads. Improper posts are deleted. If your posts repeatedly indicate you have not done this required homework, your membership is deleted.

:) Tah

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Traderathome
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2 - Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

The PVSRA TVT20, Trading a Complex Market Effectively and Simply

The PVSRA TVT20 trade method is not an "original" work.  As with our indicators, it is based on contributions over time but with a simple "gardener" to pull the weeds and straighten things up.  So we should credit others that pioneered, contributed, and left noteworthy examples as clues for others that would follow.

And why so?  The reason is that the Robber Bank MMs whip and whack prices, make the market choppy, and run their Head Fakes and Stop Hunts.....all designed to keep everyone but themselves at severe disadvantage when trying to make pips from what they "predict" will be good price moves.....to leave good intentioned traders with unintended losses!

Special credit goes to Fisher755, who diligently read what there was to read, absorbed it, learned from it, and eventually realized there was a gem laying there.  It was not all cut and polished so that anyone could instantly be impressed by it.  It was just laying there.  Nobody picked it up and started to examine it.   Nobody saw its true value,.....nobody except Fisher755, who had scrupulously done all the Homework, and was therefore in a position to recognize what others missed.

And so, we come to the PVSRA TVT20.  TVT20 stands for "Trend Validated Trade for 20 pips (MOL)".  This post will describe this method.  It will identify the essential considerations of the method and sufficiently discuss them.  Any need for changes discovered as the method is extensively used, will be incorporated into this post as time goes on.  So, here we go.

The PVSRA TVT20 combines two acknowledged benefits to traders: one, that "natural" market momentum benefits traders unlike anything else, and two, that "FIFO" (fast in, fast out) trades are a very effective way to capture pips before the MMs can decapitate you!  And, in the process, it is discovered that the age-old problem of SL placement is finally resolved to the benefit of the trader!


Here are the PVSRA TVT20 considerations......
1. Trade preferably the LS. Yes, sometimes the AS looks like a good start, but it is overall best to await the LS, or even the NYS.
2. Trade preferably only if Trend has good angle.
3. Trade only if PVSRA supports a Trend direction move.
4. Wait EP for these things....
        * PA must exhibit a move away from the Trend (does not have to come from within the Trend).
        * PA must exhibit a retrace back towards the Trend (towards/ into/ thru).
        * PA must exhibit a move back away from the Trend, with a breakout or imminent breakout of a key S/R Level (whole, half, sometimes a quarter Level).
5. TP is 20+ pips, so pick a S&R or consolidation area really close in.
6. SL is placed somewhere just beyond the retrace move, maybe just beyond some historic S/R a bit further away.
7. Add to trade only close to SL. If you' add to a trade as MMs push price against you, an EP near SL will lose least if you later fold.

1. Trade preferably the LS.
The LS is by far the highest volume time each day for trading.   If there is going to be momentum to carry a trade, if the Trend is going to exhibit that by showing good angle, then this is the time of each trading day that it will occur.  Some brokers advertise the forex market as "24/5", as though that was a good thing for retail traders.   Don't believe it!  Remember, at the end of the trading day, when there is the "changeover" to the next trading day, the Robber Bank MMs will increase spreads!  For some pairs, spreads can suddenly shoot from several pips to dozens of pips.  They do this to hit stops and to discourage traders from trading during this period, while they use all available liquidity for themselves.   Trade the LS only.  Do not "carry" trades over to another day!

2. Trade preferably only if Trend has good angle.
As stated just above, the Trend must show good angle.  For longs, that would be an angle of between 1 o'clock and 2 o'clock on the watch.  For shorts, that would be an angle of between 4 o'clock and 5 o'clock on the watch.   Anything less than that is not so clear an indication of good momentum to carry a trade.   It is best if the angle is the result of market activity over time, and not the result of some sudden price spike maniuplation by the Robber Bank MMs!

3. PVSRA must support....
Your skill with PVSRA is a key element to your best success as a trader.   It fills in the "blanks".  It leads to "understanding" how the market REALLY works.  It is what changes you from a blind trader that is at the mercy of a plethora of indicators, EAs and the Robber Bank MMs (good luck!), into a trader that wise, disciplined and patient.   Do not forsake PVSRA for some "good looking pic", leaping into the action, and ending up cleaned out!  As you can see in the example trade picture attached, previous to the TVT20 the MMs had previously sold off heavily from above the whole Level, a PVSRA indication of bears.

4. Wait EP for these things....
What you want to see is that price has already made a zig-zag move, first away from the Trend (does not have to come from inside the trend), then back towards the trend (towards/into/thru) and then that price moves back away from the Trend, having made a breakout or posing an imminent breakout of a key level (whole, half, sometimes a quarter Level).  Think of it as "zig-zag, key Level breakout".  This is the time for entry.  And this is the place to mention entry size.  If you have, for example, a $500 account, your entry size should be 0.01 (one micro-lots).  This allows you to put on up to three such EPs, building your trade. As your account grows, your trade size can grow accordingly.  It is recommended to trade very light relative to account size.  This promotes confidence rather than fear, discipline rather than greed, and patience rather than over trading.  Remember, as your actual experience mounts, and your actual account grows, you can increase trade size accordingly.  You can see that things will improve only slowly at first, but with success they will actually, over time, be improving at an ever increasing rate!  Be sensible; be disciplined and be patient.

5. TP is 20+ pips.....
The key to this TVT20 method is the "FIFO"....fast in, fast out!.....style of trading,  Yes, there will be times price will run quickly further.  Don't kick a gift horse in the mouth!  Take the profit.  And do not get greedy and wait for the gift horse to kick you, taking it all back, and more!  The Robber Bank MMs whip and whack prices to decapitate traders looking for nice, smooth, forward runs.  Don't believe it!  Take your profit off the table. Await a decent retrace and the possibility of a repeat or similar trade.

6. SL is placed just beyond the retrace move
The TVT20 method relies on a price zig-zag and then a breakout of a whole, half level, sometimes a quarter Level, while the Trend has good angle.  This situation makes placing the SL a no-brainer.   Place it just beyond the retrace in the zig-zag move, or maybe just beyond some obvious historic S/R level nearby.  Since price just broke out a key Level the probability is there will not be another deep retrace until the price first makes pips for the trade.  Why?  The Robber Bank MMs will usually allow more time and give more pips to coax more money into the market before running another retrace or a stop hunt.

7. Add to trade only close to SL.
More trades than not, you will suffer the MMs moving price against you after making entry.  This is the result of a choppy market, the kind of market maintained by the MMs thru price manipulation in order to create liquidity to fill SM orders and to outright legally steal money from market participants.  Done carefully, additions to the trade can enable us to take advantage of the MMs when they are trying to take advantage of us.  Only add to the trade close to the SL.  Such additions will lose the least if the SL is hit.  They will profit the most if not.  This is the utilization of probabilities, which should favor us if our TVT20 selections are of quality.


Summary
That's it for now, PVSRA TVT20 in a nutshell.  The method is designed to allow you to apply your PVSRA to a specific trade style that favors you making pips with minimum risk, and a no nonsense SL placement, just in case.   You understand now why the pips target is small.  If you want more pips, as your account grows (and it will) simply enlarge your trade size for more "total" pips.   You should experience that this "FIFO" trade method does not overexpose you to market manipulations, to swaps charges, or to severe draw downs.  It is most unlikely you will ever be exposed to a "Black Swan" event.  And you will have made it extremely difficult for the Robber Bank MMs to take your money instead of you taking theirs.

Attached is a picture illustrating this method. Additional information resumes below.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah
Tvt20_example.png
Tvt20_example.png (28.95 KiB) Viewed 34625 times
Can You Please be More "Exact"?

Dear PVSRA Musketeers,

After you have read all the above on TVT20 FIFO, if you still seek more "exactness" your question or questions might take the following forms:

Question Paraphrased: Can you give some words about MM (Money Management), explain what is your MM, describe how you handle MM?

Answer: Okay, let us accept that Money Management is involved throughout the entire process of picking a setup to trade, entering, placing additional EPs depending on how PA goes after the initial EP, placing the TP and possibly modifying it depending on how PA goes after the initial EP, and having a SL for the trade. What is our description on how to handle all of this? ......items #1 thru #7 above!

I understand that we will always be getting questions we have taken great pains to answer up front. This is because not everyone reads, some without retaining because they are only reading out of a feeling of obligation to do so, and because everyone thinks there should be more details, more "exactness". Learning PVSRA is a time consuming process. Learning HTMRW is a time consuming process. And by the time reasonable proficiency is attained, one also has a very healthy respect for the fact that no one can ever know just how the Robber Bank Market Makers will move price next! This fact is why attempts at "too much exactness" can damage a method, rather than improve it.

Do we know if these Market Makers will run a stop hunt? If they do, do we know how far it will go? If we set our SL just beyond the previous most significant high or low (for example), and price moves thru it, is it then always best to close the trade without regard for any other existing considerations? You can put exactness to items #1 thru #7. Or, you can give yourself some wiggle room. You have four options if a trade goes against you: fold, fold and reverse, hold, hold and add. It is an individual's choice just how they manage any trade based on what they are seeing. We can do no more than lay out the ground work of a reasonable trading method, complete with all reasonable parameters for the major considerations. We cannot force folks to read, to think, to apply with reason. If they apply much differently then we have specified, and start asking questions when things do not go well, we cannot force them to read, to think, and to apply as we suggest.

Providing more exactness IS NOT A SOLUTION! The character of the market does not lend itself to traders being more profitable by constricting their trading to more and more exactness in their trading parameters. Trading profitably is not easy. This is not a "get rich quick" endeavor. And the more complicated you make it for yourself by ever increasing trading parameters and their exactness, the more you can move past the point of "most profitable" into the area of "getting less profitable again". And what are those parameters and exactness thereof that yields the "most profitable"? No one can know because it depends on the current "conditions" in the market, to what degree the MMs are whipping and whacking price, which is something that can change in an instant.

This is like a child learning to ride a bicycle. The parent does not hand the child a complete list of instructions on how to keep balance. The child has to just take a go at it and over time gain the learning of how to keep balance under changing conditions.....doing different things at different times, because THAT is what it is all about. There IS no best single exactness!


Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

How Do We "Fit" Into the Market?

Dear PVSRA Musketeers,

Here is a quick overview of the market and how PVSRA and our TVT20 FIFO trading plan fits into it.

People from all walks of life might come to see the currency market as an opportunity. When they look at it, what do they see? Well, they hear about how big it is, how trading can be "24/7", and how easy it is to set up an account with many different brokers that offer charting with zillions of indicators that will make this "easy to make money" opportunity even easier! Some such folks might have time constraints, and desire to trade off of high time frame charts so they do not have to be glued to the computer,.....all kinds of folks with all kinds of questions, concerns, and preferences.

So, they get involved (as you have) and start looking at charts in an effort to hone that ability to know how price will move next, and join the many, many thousands that are looking to make good money off this currency wagon train! And what do they see? What do they NOT see? What can they do?

Folks, the currency market is a "dog eat dog" slaughter house, all fancied up on the exterior to attract the sheep and get them to walk in! Briefly, here are some things you need to know.

The currency market is a rigged market. It is just like the equities (stock) markets, but huge by comparison to them. Some very, very, very, very, very, very big banks that make billions in profits yearly and pay zip in taxes run the currency trading market for profit. They have complete control of currency prices and manipulate them to "make the market", which is just a palatable way of saying "to make them a fortune yearly off the suckers that come to play."

Let's take a look at how currency prices move. Let's look at some, at any, higher time frame charts and see what there is to see there. What we see is that price moves from point A to point B. Sometimes fast, sometimes slowly. Sometimes with a lot of meandering up and down along the way, and sometimes with less meandering up and down along the way. The critical thing to absorb is that whether price is trending up or down on the highest time frame charts, there is a "lot of slip between cup and lip", meaning price will be making both bull and bear swings. PERIOD! Overall, no matter what the conditions in the market are, no matter what the so called "fundamentals" are or how they change, no matter what all the zillions of indicators would have you believe,......price will be making both bull and bear swings! PERIOD!

The PVSRA TVT20 FIFO trading method Is aimed at this market reality. We PVSRA musketeers do not care what the fundamentals are, nor what the zillions of packaged (and sometimes grossly priced) indicators say! All we care about is keeping an eye on what currency pairs we have decided to keep an eye on, and look for decent setups each market day,.....up or down setups within the so called "existing" higher time frame trend....we don't care what the "existing" higher time frame trend is (and it is probably different on each of the selected higher time frame charts you look at!) .......PERIOD!

Unfortunately, many view the market as a "24/7" money making opportunity. The fact is this is not so. There are different times during the market day. Some are highly dangerous to trade. Some are better. The London session is overall the best environment for trading. And we do not get a good view of the price action in a London session from higher time frame charts. They are good for confirming historical support, resistance, consolidation areas. Use them for what they are good for. Try to use them in any other way and you will be sorry.

So, we preferentially use the M15 time frame chart thru the London session in order to keep a watch for possible setups. There is nothing wrong with the H1 and lower time frame charts for seeing the price action from those different perspectives, but the prime time frame chart for confirming a setup is the M15, and can sometimes be the M5, which is okay also since the TVT20 FIFO method is a method of trading the market for conservative pips.....in and out in the same day.

Also, be wary of "news". Part of the onslaught of releases, news, articles, etc. is the embodiment of released statistics corrupted over the years by changes in exactly what they measure, of news spinning that hides truth, and of articles planted with words designed to help readers get a wrong bias. Trade only what you see (TOWYS) regarding our method rather than what you might have allowed yourself to come to believe.

I hope this overview of the market, and how we fit into it, is of help to each of you.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

These Four Are All We Have

When trading, emotions should not be placed on a throne they do not deserve to occupy.

We have but four areas under our own control: What we think, say, do and feel. That's it in a nutshell. What we think tends to progress into what we say. And that can, in turn, progress into what we do......actions that we take. And in the background are emotions. They too, are under our control, though it sometimes seems otherwise. I believe God gave us emotions for us to enjoy: peace, joy, happiness, love. But, in the spirit of having given us free will, we have also the capacity to agitate, be sorrow and hate. We choose how we will respond to all that happens in life. And how we respond will determine some things in our future. If we stay with the good thoughts, speech and actions we attain the "high ground" and will there find what God intended us to have by way of emotions. If we go with the bad thoughts, speech and actions, we do not attain the "high ground". And we will drown ourselves with the bad emotions.

In life we only control ourselves in what we think, say, do and feel. Now, as for trading......we engage in trading to make money. There are emotions that can interfere with this.....greed, fear, etc.,.....emotions that push us to think wrong and act wrong. So, in the end, the best place for emotions is "out of the room when trading".

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Library

Post by Traderathome »

Strategy and Execution

I was reading a book. Part of it dealt with war and delved into strategies. While reading this part I realized the same principles applied to trading. So, I read and re-read, thought it out, let it all be absorbed until it came to a clear parallel between warring adversaries and trading the market. My wish for what follows is that it will help you in your work to become a better trader.

Every trader seeks a trading method that suits them the best. Whatever method a trader has, it is a strategy for taking profits out of the market. All methods/strategies have rules. It is the rules that define the strategy, that define exactly how it is to be carried out, exactly how it is to be executed.

However, it should be realized that successful execution often depends on knowing when to break the rules....on having a "feel" for an opportunity and knowing how to alter strategy to take advantage....and on fully understanding and accepting the higher risk of doing so.

The trader's adversary is the market. Specifically, it is the Robber Bank market makers because these are the institutions that control price and manipulate it for their own profits; filling orders for commissions no matter how they might need to move price to do so, and stealing money from market participants by moving price to trigger stop loss orders. Due to the MM's ability to manipulate price, anything can happen at any time. Experienced traders know this and are in constant awareness of it while trading. But sometimes what happens opens the door for a trader to make greater profits, albeit at higher risk, meaning it might or it might not work out. And if it does not work out, losses will be greater.

A well trained and very talented Commanding Officer knows fully the strategy selected to be applied in the coming conflict, and also continues to assess the progress of the strategy during the conflict; and will "feel" when forces need to be applied differently than planned. This is astute flexibility. It is knowing when and how to break from the plan....knowing when to take a "calculated risk"....that can result in saving the day or achieving a greater victory than hoped for.

For Commanding Officers and traders alike, "feeling" when to break the rules is a special talent. It is not a gift we are born with. It is a talent/ability/skill developed only thru serious study and diligent doing, thru good schooling and tough field experience. Traders without the proper study and screen time necessary to develop this skill, that engage in breaking the rules, will be cut to shreds! Equate that to blown account, loss of all money!

In the Orientation Room it is said of PVSRA.......

We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.

This means serious studying (your Homework) and lots of screen time of diligent doing (applying correctly that will show improvement with time)! It will bring greater profit to your trading. Your skill with PVSRA will improve. Your understanding of HTMRW will improve. Your talent/ability/skill to have that "feel" for when and how to adjust the strategy will develop. You will become a better Commanding Officer of your trades in the war with the Robber Bank MMs because your execution of strategy will incorporate astute flexibility. This is the "Art of War".

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

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The Utility of "Volume"

What is "volume"? What does the "volume" histogram really show on MT4?

That which is referred to as "volume" is the count of price changes between data ticks. It has nothing to do with the size of orders, only the number of times the price on orders has changed since the last data tick. So what? Well, here is an eye opener (if you have not already realized this).

Have you ever watched....I mean really watched, closely watched.....price action and volume action on a low TF chart? If you have, then you have seen how sometimes a series of ticks show high volume coming in and price moving (let's say price is moving down, ok?). This is all just fine. Right? And then along comes another tick, or a few ticks of very light volume, that brings price right back up....or even a little higher! And you start to wonder how can heavy action that takes the price down be so easily countered.....more than countered.....with such light action taking price right back up, and even higher? It can be the other way around, too.....you suddenly see a very tall, heavy action volume bar but price hardly moves lower. In the next TF hardly any volume action at all somehow manages to move price up real good.....!?

When the MMs are supporting price (this example), after some heavy action SM short order filling that might cause the price to start moving lower, they can easily put the price back higher to sucker in a new round of "wrong sider longs" for liquidity to continue filling SM short orders, or....their own wallets! How is it so simple for these Robber Bank MMs to do this? Well, and this is only a thought, all they have to do is to be counterparty to any real pending orders on the price queue that are not balanced by opposite side pending orders, and "fabricate" the rest of the price move up....as far up as they want to take it....using "penny a pip" price change book entries. In which case, what doesn't seem like a lot of action, isn't. And what might seem like a lot of action, also isn't. It is all just execution of "penny a pip" price change book entries.

What is to learn here? HTMRW! For one thing, the Robber Bank MMs completely control price. They can take it up, down, or lock it in place as much as they want to. For another thing, the number of "penny a pip" book entry transactions used to control price (up/down/lock) between ticks could be very light, but also intentionally increased to make PA look like it has more real trading activity behind it than it really does. Thirdly, during the market day periods of low volatility (fewer real incoming orders being executed by the MMs) are times the Robber Bank MMs can manipulate more easily.

So, does "volume of price changes" have any relevance at all? Yep! Just so long as you consider it's changes relative to volume overall and realize that in the genuinely more busy London session the volume picture is probably more truth than fiction compared to less busy times (NY session "After Hours" and Asian session). This is why we recommend trading the London session. PVSRA clues here can be better.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

The Perfect Setup

Setups are breakout possibilities, made easier to spot using our template. Unfortunately, most of the time the MMs will whip and whack price, confuse and deceive, stop hunt and steal before ever initiating the breakout. Here is where traders are burdened with making SL choices and then watching the circus that frequently leads to closing of EPs at a loss. The trader's imperative, therefore, is to seek those setup situations that maximize the probability for success.

Having both trends properly stacked, both with some angle appropriate to the long or short direction, is one way to maximize probability for success. And it helps if the recent history of the trends also supports the setup. But in this picture you'll see something else you can use in the future. A prime situation for the MMs to prepare for a run is to pull the price back from a key level to (or even well thru) the 200 EMA (down for longs, up for shorts).

When you see a setup comprised of these three things (illustrated in the attached picture) the probability of success is greatly enhanced.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah
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Re: Study Hall Library

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Starting a Trade

Start a trade the good way and you will have fewer headaches. Start a trade only in the London Session with supporting PVSRA and with our trends properly placed.....

LONG - Trend must be angled upwards and situated above the 200 EMA, which should be angled flat to up.
SHORT - Trend must be angled downwards and situated below the 200 EMA, which should be angled flat to down.

Do NOT start a trade when....
  • * trend is flat
    * trend is wrong side of 200 EMA
    * outside LS hours
....The above apply for "good" setups. However, keep in mind a basic precept....that if the trend is angled up and PA is above it, things are bullish, and if the trend is angled down and PA is below it, things are bearish. And this is the case no matter where the trend is in relationship to the 200 EMA and no matter what the angle is for the 200 EMA. Such situations occur on stop hunts in "good" setups. Just be aware that when such situations contrary to a "good" setup develop, their bullishness/bearishness take precedence. Maybe temporarily if the MMs are only running a stop hunt, but if not then a reversal is in the making. Be aware, be flexible, never ignore this precept! A "good" setup could develop what looks like a stop hunt, but continue to progress into a profitable short setup that simply is not one of our "good" setups....but profitable nonetheless! As for starting a trade outside of LS hours, if a "good" setup comes in the AS, use your own judgement. The AS is usually a "liquidity creation zone".


EPs - Entry should be as PA passes previous H/L (for longs/shorts) of zigzag PA across the trend, or if no zigzag pattern then as PA exits the trend and then passes the last significant H/L of general PA.

Do NOT make an EP when....
  • * PA is still inside of trend
    * Worse, PA is wrong side of trend!
    * Really worse, PA is where you think you'll make the most off of it!
....The above apply except if the trends are properly stacked and with good angle and PA has already made a move to the possible breakout area. If PA then reverses to/thru the trend in the opposite direction of the trade, it is with good odds a stop hunt move. As such, if you are trading light, do take advantage if you can.

This eliminates many "setups". And what is really nice is that the good setups are easier to spot! If you will be patient and start trades this way, you will be trading less, profiting more,....and with fewer headaches.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:)Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

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Managing a Trade

Manage these five things when you have an open trade; total size of the trade, spacing of EPs, SL, TP and the duration of the trade.

Total Size of Trade - It is recommended you limit the total open size of all account trades to 0.01 (a micro-lot) per $100 of account balance. Once you have established yourself to be at least three full months continuously profitable with only very small draw downs, then double it. Repeat the process to the goal of increasing one final time to 0.03 per $100 of account balance. That is 3 full lots per $10k and plenty enough to get into real trouble if you have not taken this seriously! it It is probably best to only have one trade at a time. But if you do more than that, be sure their combined size complies with this. Do not exceed this and you will not be overtrading. You will be trading with a lot less stress! Profits will build the account, and you won't get ulcers in the process.

EP Spacing - It is recommended no more than 2 EPs be placed per grid on our template, perhaps 3 if you add on a SH move. Remember, the goal is to make pips profit on a good running trade. Bunching up EPs is either a sign of greed or a sign you feel the trade is sluggish and you need to do this to make some profit, in which case maybe the trade is sluggish. If the trade is sluggish, close it! Sluggish means renewed ranging and the setbacks that can bring.

Stop Loss - It is recommended a reasonably close SL (if you want a close SL) be just past the extremity of a PVA candle, or series of PVA candles, nearest below for longs, nearest above for shorts. If PA is pushed thru such an active area the odds increase that PA goes further,.....a stop hunt or perhaps a reversal.

Take Profit - It is recommended the TP be 20 pips MOL, or to next level of historic consolidation/ranging when such is within the daily range for the traded currency pair. If by chance you TP and then decide that PA looks like a "runner" wait for a retrace to EP again. But don't let a 2nd EP fall victim to "out of steam" PA. If PA does not soon come out of the retrace and proceed in the trade direction, kill the trade!

Trade Duration - The ultimate goal here is to make modest pips daily, or on whatever days offer a good setup. And it is recommended the trade be closed before the end of the day,.....FIFO, "Fast in, Fast Out". Avoid swap charges. Avoid the next Black Swan event.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

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The Biggest Obstacle to Profits

Sure, there are all manner of trading difficulties: underfunding, overtrading, lack of seriousness,....the list is endless. Regardless, there is but one "Big Daddy Difficulty" that absolutely MUST be dealt with to be profitable. We will ease into this now......

It is said price is either ranging or trending. Traders come across many methods to trade one or the other situation. But, in fact, price is ALWAYS doing but ONE THING......being whipped and whacked......moving up AND down, sometimes by only few pips and sometimes by huge pips. The MMs make price do this for their own profits: to get price to locations of commissionable pending orders or to run stop hunts to legally steal money from market participants. The more significant moves up/down are inconsistent in both time and distance, leaving market participants no basis on which to profitably predict them. And a trader will not be profitable trying to predict PA. Yet, every trader MUST learn how to be profitable in spite of this!

It is said that ranging offers the easiest profits to make. If price is in the bottom of the range, enter long with a SL reasonably below the lowest candle of the range, and wait. One of three things will happen: PA moves up and you have profit, or PA moves down and hits the SL....either because the MMs are breaking price out of the range for a true move lower, or because they just ran a stop hunt on you and other longs, and the price will go up again now that the MMs have stolen your money. If price is in the top of the range, enter short with a SL reasonably placed above the highest candle of the range, and wait. One of three things will happen: PA moves down and you have profit, or PA moves up and hits the SL....either because the MMs are breaking price out of the range for a true move higher, or because they just ran a stop hunt on you and other shorts, and the price will go down again now that the MMs have stolen your money. See? This is simple trading. There are no other choices for either you or for the MMs to make in range trading.

It is said that trading the trend is a safer way to profits. This is because pauses/retraces in the trend, that bring losses to a trend trade, are eventually cancelled.....PA moving again in the trend direction, even higher......for all but the last retrace. Still, we are dealing with up/down PA, and there is real danger here. The danger is that traders have the confidence they are expected to have when trend trading. So, they add on retraces....even "bunch up" more entries to profit even more on retraces. And what will the MMs do when they see the overall market doing this? Simple. The retrace up to this point will turn out to be one of those "few pips" moves that is immediately followed by one of those "huge" pips continuation moves! Running a stop hunt here is a "too good to pass up" opportunity for the MMs to legally steal money from market participants!

So, we can see that while ranging is said to be the easiest to profit from, and trending is said to be the safest way to profits,.....both statements might instill in the trader a sense of security that does NOT BELONG! Maybe this is by design of those that first sought to put out such statements about markets. Anyway, we now come to the point of all of this. In what manner can a trader cope profitably with the "Big Daddy Difficulty" fostered by the MMs?

Let's be very clear here. The "Big Daddy Difficulty" is that the MMs move price both up AND down.....all the time and in unpredictable fashion! This is HTMRW! And when it moves the wrong way for our trade, it causes loss. What we can do...the ONLY thing that really helps...is to trade very light relative to account size! Why is this singularly helpful? The loss will be permanent due to a SL being hit, or by the trader closing the trade seeing that things are going too far wrong. Or the loss will be temporary, as the MMs run their stop hunt in the range or retrace/stop hunt in a trend, and then recover the price and continue PA in the trade direction. Whether the loss is permanent or temporary, the situations the MMs cause to create it are a part of trading that we must accept. And it really is no problem.........UNLESS THE TRADER LOST TOO MUCH, OR EVEN HAD A MARGIN CALL THAT BLEW THE ACCOUNT due to overtrading!

So, here is how you must deal with the "Big Daddy Difficulty" no matter what method of trading you use. Trade very light relative to account size. Implement this three ways. Use small EP sizes, which allows you more additional EPs should the situation develop where it looks reasonable to add to a trade. Spread out EP placements, because the movement against your trade might come to the point where it seems reasonable to add to the trade, but in reality (later to be discovered) the move so far is "few pips" and the "huge pips" move is about to happen...and if you've overtraded, you're dead! And keep track of the total open size of all trades vs your self-imposed limit for the account, and do not exceed your limit! You must impose a limit on your trading to keep your trading very light relative to account size. And you must impose the limit in all three of these ways! Remember, these Robber Banks and their market making operations make billions yearly. They manipulate prices up and down for good reason. It works for them! And it works for them because most traders are inherently greedy and predisposed to believe they can trust all manner of personally selected indicators.....as well as their own experience, "intelligence" and knowledge of fundamentals.....to have a "fair idea of how price will move next". And then put too much of their money on it.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

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"Big Daddy Difficulty" vs Being Profitable

We should know by now what the "Big Daddy Difficulty" is. But, just in case, here it is repeated. The MMs almost constantly are moving price up and down, just a small bit in small ranges, a big amount in big ranges, sometimes a larger amount in whips and whacks and occasionally some very large amounts in "Pump 'n Dumps" and "Torpedo & Buy...Buy...Buy!" It all happens for the same reason; liquidity creation. And with the MMs manipulating price up and down like this, no one can ever be sure where price might go over the next hour, the next trading session or where it might top out or bottom out. PA might have the appearance of being in a top area and being very overbought, and then comes a short squeeze for another 50, 100, 200 pips up, so the MMs can steal from many who gambled short at the "highs". PA might have the appearance of being in a bottom area and being very oversold, and then comes a shakeout for another 50, 100, 200 pips down, so the MMs can steal from many who gambled long at the "lows".


Trade the momentum: "Let the Dragon and PA Show the Way."
* Dragon has acceptable angle (long: 1-2 o'clock, short: 4-5 o'clock)
* PA is on the right side of Dragon and breaks out previous H/L
* Start trades only in the London Session
.....better if...…
* PA is also on the right side of Bias trend
.....best if....…..
* PVA bar()s) are recently across the Dragon
* Dragon is also on the right side of Bias trend

If you missed the break out trade: Spot the previous H/L defining the break out level, and place pending order just beyond to possibly EP if MM's manipulate a retrace.

In case of PA reversing on the trade: Study higher TF(s) (like H1 & H4 if trade TF is M5 or M15). If the Dragon shows retention of acceptable angle, and/or with your skill at PVSRA and your knowledge of HTMRW you assess odds favor the reversal to be only a retrace or a stop hunt, then hold....but only as long as the draw down of the trade does not exceed 3% of your account balance (shown by our Trade Levels indicator in the open trade PL label). If and when it does, fold the trade. You can decide to use a different "%" until you get used to this. It could be you feel 3% is too high and choose to use a lower "%". Of course, if your assessment is negative, fold the trade.

Manage your account risk: Trade very light relative to account size. Self-impose a limit to the number of open micro-lots on your account (has already been discussed in previous posts). Restrict yourself to only a couple of open trades at a time. Never let the aggregate DD of open trades reach 10% of your account balance. Before 10% total account DD close all trades and wait at least until the next trading day before proceeding to trade.


There is not a lot that is new here. Oh, the PVA bar(s) crossing the Dragon sometime recently before PA breakout is an observation on some of the more successful setups. The suggestion of what to do if PA reverses on a trade is only a suggestion, and how successful it is depends in part on your skill at PVSRA and knowledge of HTMRW. Consider the "3%" as currently experimental, so use your own judgement. Some ongoing work is being accomplished in these areas and eventually, with any luck, we can offer a more exacting, definitive post.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: Study Hall Library

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TVT20 (MOL) FIFO Summary

Reasons:
Each market day provides more opportunities for trades of 20 pips (MOL), FIFO than anything else, accept scalping for 3-8 pips! And "FIFO" prevents exposure to "Black Swan" events, negative swap charges and perhaps a soon-to-come sudden reversal spike that will surely stop you out with a loss (what the MMs intend them to do), whether the MMs make it happen in conjunction with front running a high impact release, or for no reason except their greed.


Prerequisites:
  • * London session only, to both open and close!
    * Dragon must have proper angle, up for longs (best is 40-50 degrees up), down for shorts (best is 40-50 degrees down).
    * PA must be inside or above Dragon for longs, inside or below Dragon for shorts.
    * Market Bias trend must be flat to up for longs, flat to down for shorts. Can be either side of Dragon, but best if below (longs), above (shorts).
    * PVSRA.....best if it recently shows market activity favors lows and pops for longs, highs and drops for shorts.
    * MOMENTUM.....PA alone is never a reliable indicator of momentum, and momentum is what is needed for maximizing the odds for a favorable trade outcome. It is the angle of some moving average that indicates momentum! So, to repeat.....the Dragon must have decent angle! And this occurs in the LS more so than at any other time on any market day.
    * HTF CONFIRMATION….. For best odds of success H1 Dragon should also have angle with PA on the correct side.
Implementation:
  • * Monitor for setups during the LS.
    * Be sure Dragon is properly angled and Bias is flat to properly angled.
    * Be sure PVSRA shows "confirming" signal(s) recently.
    * Open and close for 20 pips (MOL) by end of LS (FIFO),...before end of NYS at the latest!
    * Following the EP of a trade, what if PA makes no progress during the first several M15 TFs? Close the trade due to lack of momentum.
    * Following the EP of a trade, what if PA reverses thru the wrong side of the Dragon? Close the trade immediately, or wait to see if PA surpasses the extremities of previous candles that also extend thru the wrong side of the Dragon, and then promptly close the trade if that happens. There is no "best" answer to this question and it is a matter of your risk tolerance and account ability to handle such losses. Either way, if PA continues in wrong direction you save yourself from larger loss and grief. If PA reverses again to trade direction and setup prerequisites are again met you have another trade opportunity, and now with more "confirmation".
Money Management Imperative:
Trade very light relative to account size. This means open your trades with a EP that is sized very small relative to your account. You can add more once you have greater assurance the trade is moving as you want it to. You can carefully add more if the MMs run a stop hunt and return PA to your trade direction. But if the worse happens to your trade then your account will not be jeopardized, and without stress you can begin to "fix" things as you see more of future PA. At some point in the future we will have a table that shows the recommended size of individual EPs as well as the maximum limit to total size of all open EPs, taking into consideration both the AccountEquity() and the AccountMargin(). For now, we recommend the individual EP size of 1 micro-lot for account equity up to $1,999 and 1 micro-lot per $1,000 of account equity thereafter, and always with a total open limit of 1 micro-lot per $100 of account equity. Naturally, your account equity will fluctuate, which you must accommodate when sizing EPs and building trades. In a few words,......the goal is to achieve an average of maybe 2.5% account growth weekly, but go light and get used to it. Is this all necessary....? No, not if you are already a success at trading. But, "heavy hitters" can suddenly become heavy losers and fade from the scene to never be heard from again. What is recommended here will not hurt you. You will survive the antics of the market makers and grow to become ever more successful, and in time your limit will increase....but safely so as your account grows, because you have learned the wisdom of trading very light relative to account size and you have ingrained the habit of doing it!


Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

Example of TVT20 (MOL) FIFO:
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Orientation & Study Materials

Post by Traderathome »

Dear PVSRA Musketeers,

Here is something to ponder if you are confused about the essence of our system......

The Axe Men From Hell!

Three things are needed for a trade well seeded,
and for good odds that profits will swell.

PVA comes before a move away that does more,
and a breakout, so profits you foretell.

But a reversal can be, and a sad thing to see,
so remember this next very well.

Choose fold, or hold purse, or fold and reverse,
and heed this loud warning bell.....

Never mend on the wrong side of trend,
and give reason for the MMs to revel.

Forsake not trend angle, or your money will dangle
on the belts of the Axe Men from Hell!

:violin: - traderathome

"PVA" refers to the "Price Volume Analysis" bars of our volume histogram and chart candles.
Have a proper trade setup and manage the trade properly.

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Re: 2 - Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

Method Discipline = Don't Trade Fake Setups!

What are "fake" setups? They are ANYTHING THAT LOOKS GOOD BUT IS NOT A PROPER SETUP! Understand this...….

Different PA situations can "draw us into the flame", can tempt us, can seduce us into taking a trade that has higher risk and usually costs us. It might be that PA has been on a railroad track trend for such a time and distance, and with PA now near a true historic "ceiling" or "floor", that we cannot see anything happening but a reversal and that PA is at a great place to open a trade now, in anticipation of the reversal move sure to come and without much adverse PA likely until it does come. Or, it might be something more simple and common, where the Dragon has assumed a good angle opposite from a good PA move that seems "completed" and PA is moving now thru the newly re-angled Dragon in reversal direction. Situations like this, and many others, are FAKE SETUPS! They are NOT of our method. And this is where we need exercise caution.

With and without proper trends (plural) stacking, the MMs can make situations seem to be a nice money making opportunity (what angle does Dragon have and is PA on correct side of it?). In the longer run....after trading these becomes habit.....we learn we're losing, not profiting from being seduced into trading these "because they sometimes look soooo.......good)! It is not a question if they can yield profit. It is a question of method discipline.

Personally, I am first asking myself "Do I have the trends stacked in proper order?" If not, there is no sense in asking any more questions. The sense is to move on to something else. And if nothing anywhere, sit on hands. Why? Because what do you think tends to appear when the price move following these FAKE "SETUPS" is over with...?

We just need to exercise method discipline. If we do, we'll be relaxed, sitting on our hands until the next round of proper setups begins, instead of sweating and tearing out our hair during that period because we allowed ourselves to be seduced by the MMs' price manipulations into trading "fake setups", which we easily knew were not proper setups, but we were more interested in another good looking opportunity to trade than we were in exercising METHOD DISCIPLINE.

PVSRA, Discipline, Patience and Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: 2 - Study Hall Library

Post by Traderathome »

Thoughts On Setups

Recap of What Is A "Setup"
A setup is primarily a London Session event. It begins when PA breaks out of the Dragon. For longs, PA breaks up out of the Dragon while the Dragon has up angle and the Bias trend is at least starting to have up angle. For shorts, PA breaks down out of the Dragon while the Dragon has down angle and the Bias trend is at least starting to have down angle. The situation can be better if PA at first EP is also above the Bias for longs and below the Bias for shorts (i.e., PA is above both trends or below both trends), and that situation can be best if the Dragon and Bias are "stacked" bullish or bearish, although they do not have to be "stacked" to have a decent setup.

Where to Start Your TVT 20 Trade
Typically, PA will range after exiting the Dragon before an actual breakout, so within this range is often a good place to start the trade, or if PA breaks out of the range. If you wait for the ranging and it does not happen, and PA continues away from the Dragon, then enter using your own judgement. However, in such cases, MMs will sometimes later quickly retrace PA towards the Dragon, so you could also consider placing a pending order to start your trade (or add to trade) nearer the Dragon.

When to Close Your TVT 20 Trade for "Failed Setup"
If PA reverses on you, close your TVT 20 Trade as PA re-crosses the Dragon centerline. Consider it a failed trade. You can save yourself aggravation and additional loss by setting a PO SL at Dragon centerline at the time you start your trade so you won't have to constantly monitor for this situation, and so you won't weaken and fail to do it when the time comes.

When to Add More EPs
If PA continues after the breakout and you wish to increase the size of the trade, EP at achieved S/R levels and/or at retraces to S/R levels. Keep good spacing between EPs, however, as part of the discipline to trade very light relative to your account equity.

When to Close the "Successful Setup" TVT 20 Trade
Unless stopping volume suddenly happens and PA stalls, let your TVT 20 Trade continue until the TVT 20 Trade goal is achieved or the day draws towards a close. However, if stopping volume (sudden high volume) does occur and PA stalls, close your TVT 20 Trade immediately for whatever gain you have at that point. Sometimes stopping volume occurs because PA reaches another key area where MMs immediately begin filling new orders. After your trade is closed, if you later see PA has been ranging (prolonged order filling) and is starting again in the trade direction, consider if you should trade again on the increased odds (due to the order filling) there will be additional price movement.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: 2 - Study Hall Library

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Characteristics of Best Setups

Setups can occur at different times during the trading day, in the midst of hectic PA, and for the unexpected direction. On a day that is choppy or with wildly swing price,
validating a setup can be difficult. Here are keys to the best setups. Look for them.

1 - The Dragon body is smoothly curved as Dragon angle improves for B.O.
2 - The Bias trend does not have opposite angle.
3 - Setup B.O. is not before the FO-LO hour.
4 - In PA history for the day there are PVA bars at levels preceding the B.O. level.
5 - PA exiting Dragon can go into ranging. EP can be in this range, as PA breaks out of this range, at last significant PA H/L or, if closer to Dragon, at B.O. of H/L trend line.

Sincerely....PVSRA, Discipline, Patience, Profits,
:) Tah

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Re: 2 - Study Hall Library

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PVSRA Account & Trade Management

These are key points to properly managing your account while trading, to further prevention of a blown account.

Setup
Time - HK open to LS close, best after LS open
MAs - Dragon w/curved angle, best if stacked w/Bias
PA - Exited Dragon in direction of Dragon curved angle

If PA Reverses Into Dragon
Check Dragon on next lower TF chart and consider folding if Dragon has reversed angle. This is a touchy situation.
Sometimes MMs retreat PA from the trade direction to create liquidity to resume filling trade direction orders not
yet completed. But we don't know how far against our trade such a move will go. If the trade chart Dragon retains
good angle, then likely the move is not actually a reversal. If the trade chart Dragon has dubious angle and if the
next lower TF chart Dragon already has reversing angle, folding the trade may be best.

TP Hints
Per TVT 20 (MOL), FIFO
PVA bar appears w/stopping volume*
* - at some local S/R level, or
* - as sudden reverse move is made!

LIMITS
Trade very light relative to account equity.
EPs Max Size - 1 micro-lot per each <= $500 of account equity
EPs Max Density - 1 Ep per 25 pips level
EPs Max quantity - 1 micro-lot per each $100 of account equity*
Leverage <= 1:25 (1:25 is EMERGENCY MAXIMUM!)*

*The more leverage used for EPs, the less it protects against open positions blowing account. It's like an adverse
exponential relationship at work: the less remaining leverage, the (exponentially) more risk of a blown account!
Gauge when you are reaching leverage = 1:25 using the mt4 Margin Level display and the following information:
Account Max Lev ******** Recommended Min. Margin Level
1:50 ************* 200%
1:100 *********** 400%
1:200 *********** 800%
1:500 ********* 2,000%
1:1000 ******* 4,000%
*Never use so much leverage that you drop below these Margin Levels! If you see your Margin Level is lower,
immediately close positions with profit and then positions with least loss, until your Margin Level is restored
above the minimum shown!


PVSRA, Discipline, Patience and Profits,
:) Tah

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