Yes, I get what you mean. A "perfect" situation to begin a trade goes bad. So, up pop two logical questions. One, is there any precursor to knowing if this is going to happen? The answer is "No!" We cannot know how the MMs will move price next! PERIOD! Two, what do we do when we are in a trade and this happens? Well, traders have options here. One option is to fold the trade and wait for another setup. Another option is to fold and immediately open a trade in the opposite direction on the basis that the MMs might continue moving price in the new trade direction far enough for recovery of loss from the folded trade, and maybe even some profits. Another option is to leave the original trade open and wait for price to be driven to a "stopping" level, and add to the trade at this level. The move might be a stop hunt move, which will eventually end and then the price comes back towards the original trade entry, so if the trade is added to at a good distance from the original entry (averaging down) the trade will become profitable before price returns to the original entry price.david wrote:thanks for answering Tah, its very useful. PVSRA ideology is when the price rise above key level, and noticeable activity price occured, hence there is highly chance that the MM is building short, when the price is below these key level with noticeable activity likely MM are building for long.
But, sometime this might failed too, the MM will drive the price to up or down far away to the next level 500-1000 pips.
(theory is simple, but when apply it to live, it can be as tough as china firewall)
Question is, how do you know when they are going to do that? how do you spot any clue for the chart that MM suddenly changed their mind of building short or long because while ago we are expecting they was building [short|long]?
hope you get what i mean
Traderathome wrote:1. Whole levelsdavid wrote:how to identify significant key level? any particular aspect to look for? consolidation below the key level like half whole etc?
2. Half levels
3. Quarter and three quarter levels.
MMs range price to obtain liquidity to fill the large SM orders. Sometimes the range is wide, spanning multiple levels (75-200 pips, etc.). Sometimes it is narrow (20-35 pips, etc.). But, it is always to obtain the liquidity the MMs need to fill those orders. A narrow range can be displaced from a key level so you really do not get a clear impression (is it below a whole or above a half, etc.). So, many things must be viewed, correlated, sorted out (PVSRA). And still, there are times we just have to wait for PA that sends clues that are more clear and consistent. Bottom line, price is either ranging or trending. So, take a look at the trending.....the bull and bear swings....and keep in mind that if the last really significant price was high (for example) and with really a lot of consolidation in the highs before it started down, then it should go for more than just 50 (or 100 pips, etc.). In other words, if the new bear swing is still not very much....after all the preparations for it.....then it should go for more. And if price is back to ranging, then the most logical outlook would be that the MMs are again ranging price to obtain liquidity to fill more SM short orders before they continue the price lower. Bottom line here is that no one can ever know just how the MMs will move price from hour to hour, from day to day, etc. The MMs move price to fill orders and to steal money from market participants. So they will move price in either, or both directions, in order to accomplish this. No matter where price is in the larger picture (Week, Day charts, etc.) the MMs totally control price and can keep it from breaking out a key level, or from reversing at a key level.....until they are damn good and ready to make that happen (HTMRW).
Welcome to trading!
What option a trader uses is up to the trader. And the choice selected would be based on the what the trader is seeing on the charts and on how light the trader has been trading relative to account size. The lighter the trader trades, the more the trader can do in such situations. The choices are: Fold, Fold & Switch, Hold-Wait-Add. How correctly it turns out that the trader assesses what can be seen on the charts has a lot to do with their skill at PVSRA and HTMRW; skill in sizing up what is most likely going on.
There never has been and never will be an absolute winning trade method, completely and precisely defined from start to finish, that beats the MMs. From moment to moment things change. The MMs control price and they make these changes happen. And they make these changes happen to create liquidity and to steal money from market participants. Price history and what is shown on the longer term charts is no protection from this moment to moment, day to day sort of price manipulation by the Robber Bank MMs. Anyone looking for a rigid method with which to trade by that guarantees to beat the MMs should get out of trading. If they cannot put in the screen time, do their homework, start with sufficient capital, be disciplined enough to trade very light relative to account size and be flexible sufficient to ride the coattails of SM, then they should get out of this business. Anyway, that is my opinion.