Traderathome wrote:Zaifx wrote:Hi all
I would like to know if we can use sentiment to provide a clearer picture. As we believe that mm are moving price against sm and dm, sentiment can help us to determine where mm want price to be
And just where do you intend to get this sentiment from? -Tah
Hellow brother & sister,
Since Zafix throw this topic on sentiment. But not coming back yet, I would like to hv opinion on sentiment and maybe feedbacks from TAH and all PVRSA bro & sis. Let say here the sentiment is news & headline.
I would like to know hows you guys view regarding to sentiment, news, and fundamental perspectives on how we give value on it. Do we have to stay away totally from all this considerably 'noises/distortions' or can we grind some value from it as part of model in our decision making process?
As we can see nowadays, Trump tweets for example is really acting as a wild card in moving the market. I would like to put example in this case, I remember the last time Powell testify on congress was keep his hawkish stance (at the begining of the week) abt the future of US economy and clearly signaling for gradual tightening plus he try to stay away from critizing tradewar policies of trump administration. USD was start bullish rally and my bias is long and start takin long entries on the side of USD. At friday Trump had interview on CNBC and start moaning that he dont like the fed tightening policy which make USD fly high which is bad in regard to China which try to retaliate and compensate their weak position on this tradewar by devaluating yuan (PBoC mostly set dialy reference for USDCNH higher)--> USD slump --> I quit my longs. It could be interpret as maybe MM's use this as excuse to put USD lower to kill weak hands USD long.. while still USD is considerably strong in fundamental. So for me this negative sentiment is good for taking profit and quit my longs (price actions was confirmed it too).. while waiting to start long (find long setup based on PVRSA clues) again later after this sentiment gone from USD (the next week) because fed is considerably pretty independent and wont let trump critics intervering their stance. The situation might be different if Xi or Endorgan saying something like this, PBoC (considerably not independent) and TCMB (Endorgan always behave to gain more control of monetary policies and anti-tightening).
Another example for this last two week, brexit no deal fear and uncertainty keep pushing GBP down, overshadowing BoE hike, by this we can be very carefull on not too averaging longs (if tryin to trade long), because Mrs. May administration keep tellin that no deal brexit is better than deal (no matter is a bluff or not, its still draggin GBP down), so positive sentiment for GBP is unlikely for me. This sentiment is actually good to hv short bias since reversal is unlikely for now (we can see on chart too that GBP downtrend is really strong), until we hv some positive news regarding to brexit.
Interpreting news, releases and fundamental also could lead us into bad trades since we might hv bad interpretation or judge it in wrong way. The same as we interpreting how MM's move the market next. It might be lagging to rely only on fundamental n sentiment, but for me its givin good general perspective on our bias, and of course using PVRSA clues for entries is great.
How brother & sister of PVRSA view on this? does this kinda news sentiment hv values or we need to dismiss it at all?
Thanks .Zan.
